The outcome of November’s midterms in Minnesota will depend largely on voter turnout, given how closely contested a number of key districts in the state have been over the last several cycles.
Minnesota Republicans only narrowly gained control of the House following the 2024 elections, which included multiple recounts and a 2025 special election which a DFL candidate won, bringing the house to a 67-67 tie.
Then, Republican Rep. Joe Schomacker resigned in June, giving Democrats a 67-66 majority in the Minnesota House. That means that flipping or maintaining just a few seats in November could maintain the chamber for Democrats, drastically changing the way the state has been voting on a range of key issues from healthcare to public safety to the everyday lives of families and children.
Ryan Dawkins, an assistant professor of political science at Northfield’s Carleton College, believes this will be a strong year for Democrats who are enjoying the tailwinds of President Donald Trump’s falling approval rating, saying Minnesota lawmakers are most successful when they can link their pet issues to concerns at the national level.
“This is a national wave, and there is a growing correlation between state level politics and national politics,” he said.
Six districts stand out as particularly ripe for such a reversal, including the Iron Range portion of House District 7B, the Winona area of HD 26A, and the southern Minnesota regional center of HD 18A—the three seats Republicans themselves flipped last cycle.
Here’s how Republican lawmakers in each district voted during their last terms.
Healthcare, workers, and families
Two major healthcare bills took center stage during the last two legislative sessions in Minnesota.
In HD 7B, freshman lawmaker Cal Warwas said he was proud to support a bill that ended healthcare eligibility for undocumented immigrants, a measure that passed with Republican support in June 2025 during the legislative session. Rep. Erica Schwartz in 18A voted in favor of MN HF-1, along with Aaron Repinskii of 26A and Patti Anderson of 33A, who was one of the co-authors of the bill.
Representatives in 14B and 54A, both Democratic-Farmer-Labor party members in highly contested districts in 2024, voted against the measure. This year, voters still reeling from Operation Metro Surge are more critical of legislative attacks on immigrants.
In the meantime, a major bill that passed two years ago found itself on the chopping block as Republicans sought to put up roadblocks for working Minnesotans facing medical crises.
Dan Wolgamott and Brad Tabke supported a 2023-2024 measure for up to 20 weeks of paid family and medical leave during an earlier term. Anderson, who was also in office at the time, voted against the measure.
Yet this year, during the 2025-2026 session, Schwartz signed on to a bill that would have repealed the family and medical leave bill passed two years prior. A separate Republican effort to delay the program’s launch by a year, co-authored by Warwas and Anderson, never got a floor vote. That bill was immediately tabled in session by GOP leaders.
“That paid family medical leave bill is just very popular and it was just incredibly tone deaf on the part of Republicans to try to delay that,” Dawkins said.
At the federal level, Minnesotans were also affected by Republicans’ Medicaid cuts as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which will cut about $1 trillion in federal funding over the next decade. Early estimates from the US Congress Joint Economic Committee said about 400,000 of the 1.2 million Minnesotans receiving Medicaid would likely be affected by those cuts, including children, seniors, and rural residents.
In response, Minnesota lawmakers passed a bill in 2026–108 to 26–to implement the new federal work requirements, establish six-month renewal procedures, and shorten retroactive coverage. Signed by Gov. Tim Walz, the law also provided funding so Hennepin County Medical Center, a key trauma hospital in the state, could remain open.
Taxes and affordability
Dawkins said that Republicans will only be successful in the midterms if they’re able to tie some of their hobby horse issues to the national problem of affordability.
“When you have the state legislature legislating on a whole range of issues that are relevant to the everyday lives of Minnesotans, those aren’t issues voters are casting their ballot on,” Dawkins said. “They’re casting their ballot on how they feel about what’s going on in Washington.”
Reports show there’s a shortage of affordable homes for low-income voters in the state and that parents are spending as much as 10% of their annual household income on childcare.
On the childcare front, Republicans took steps to ease staffing regulations for childcare facilities with HF628 in 2025, but DFL members didn’t see how those changes would affect the bottom line for families.
During her tenure, Anderson has made tax cuts a key part of her affordability efforts for Minnesotans, but many Democrats feel that a lower tax bill doesn’t do enough to help families. In fact, many families that might see a reduction in taxes actually benefit from the programs those funds support.
By contrast, both Wolgamott and Tabke supported a universal no-cost school meals program in 2023 aimed at helping hungry kids and, by extension, their families who are struggling with affordability.Anderson voted against it.
Another issue of concern in Minnesota during the last session was tab fees, charges for plate renewal stickers that are based on a vehicle’s value. Ultimately, the legislature voted to lower these fees, a move Anderson and other Republicans supported. She pointed the fingers at DFL legislators for raising those same fees three years prior when the party held a trifecta in the state.
Public safety and governance
Lawmakers have also had opportunities to enact gun reform in the state as of late. A DFL-sponsored gun safety bill did not pass this year’s session. A sweeping gun safety reform bill that passed the Senate stalled in the House. The bill would have banned military-style assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.
Similarly, Republicans were not on board to discuss gun reform in 2025 despite an outline from Walz for a special session on the topic after a shooter killed two children at Annunciation Catholic Church in Minneapolis. This attack came just months after DFL House Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in a politically motivated attack.
Instead, Republicans like Anderson said the biggest safety threat to voters was fraud. And after a yearslong effort, she helped to pass a bipartisan bill to create an independent Office of the Inspector General for the state this year by a vote of 127 to 5.
Also on the schools front, Repinski championed the SHIELD Act, a Republican bill to fund school security upgrades, while Schwartz touted the session’s school safety wins: $5 million for anonymous threat reporting systems and more than $16 million in student mental health grants
Yet Republicans refused to vote alongside the DFL party in passing legislation to keep ICE agents out of schools, a fact Wolgamott was passionate about. A bill that would have required agents to have warrants before entering Minnesota schools failed along party lines.
Find your House district, voting precinct, and sample ballot
Unsure which House district you fall into? The Minnesota Secretary of State offers a convenient online district finder tool, while the Minnesota Legislature provides interactive maps of the state’s districts.
Once you know your district, you can also find your voting precinct online using Minnesota’s Voting Information Portal. This tool will show you an example ballot based on where you live, which will include everything from your local House district race to hyperlocal races in your area.
Sidebar
Six key districts could be the difference between Democratic or Republican control of the House. Three were narrowly won and flipped by Republicans in 2024, while two that went to DFL candidates were hotly contested. The sixth is an open race this year, with an outgoing Republican incumbent who is not seeking reelection.
- HD 7B: Iron Range
Currently held by Republican Cal Warwas
In 2024, political freshman Warwas was the first Republican to win in this district since 1928, bookending what some called a surprising yet inevitable shift as Republicans in the region had gained steam. HD 7B was one of three Greater Minnesota seats Republicans flipped in the last election. But since unionized, working-class voters have historically sided with the DFL party, a switch back could occur.
- HD 18A: North Mankato, Nicollet and St. Peter area
Currently held by Republican Erica Schwartz
Republicans flipped this seat in 2024, making it one of the most important regional center districts in the fight for House control. This purple district is a mix of small city vibes with Gustavus Adolphus College in the district and a smaller, two-year school in the area.
- HD 26A: Winona area
Currently held by Republican Aaron Repinski
Another GOP flip in 2024, this district helped produce the (prior to June 21) tied House and remains a strong example of a seat where college-town and rural politics overlap.
- House District 33A: Suburbs of the Twin Cities
Currently held by Republican Patti Anderson
Anderson is not seeking reelection to 33A this year, meaning it becomes an open seat. But she won by a narrow margin in 2024, making this district an easy flip for Democrats if they rally. Her suburban district just outside the Twin Cities is composed of residents who are keenly aware of issues relating to affordability, especially when it comes to work commutes and gas prices.
- HD 14B: DFL held by 190 votes
Currently held by DFL lawmaker Dan Wolgamott
Held by incumbent Wolgamott, HD 14B comprises suburbs surrounding the St. Cloud hub where working-class families live alongside university students. While Wolgamott won in 2024, the original vote tally showed he had an edge of just 28 votes, which later rose to 190. However, the razor thin margins prompted his competitor, Republican Susan Ek, to ask for a recount that ultimately upheld the initial results, demonstrating how flippable these districts really are.
- HD 54A: DFL held by 13 votes
Currently held by DFL member Brad Tabke
Like Wolgamott, Tabke also narrowly won reelection against Republican challenger Aaron Paul, whose campaign asked for a recount. The recount and the county’s certification put Tabke’s final margin at 14 votes. A judge ruled in January 2025 that the results of the election would hold, despite the fact that as many as 20 ballots had been thrown away by mistake. Voters who cast the missing ballots even testified in the case, but the judge ultimately decided no special election was necessary.
